Russian President Vladimir Putin “to sign annexation treaty for four Ukrainian provinces”

Russian President Vladimir Putin “to sign annexation treaty for four Ukrainian provinces”

“Fri, 30 Sep 21:53

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the Kremlin in Moscow, declared that he will sign a treaty annexing four provinces to Russia, based on the results of a unilateral referendum in the four Ukrainian provinces under his effective control.

Source: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/93b29635dcf24df14944071c97ea145436ecf43d”
The partial mobilization order issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the sharp drop in the oil market, and a series of additional sanctions by the West are likely to put further pressure on the already sluggish Russian economy. The finances that have supported the financing of the invasion of Ukraine so far are on the verge of collapse.

　Putin’s decision to pour more resources into the invasion of Ukraine has cast a pall over the Russian economy. The mobilization order will bring in more than 300,000 new troops, which will require allowances for military equipment, training, and salaries for conscripts. In addition, private companies will face new problems as they lose manpower due to exodus from the country for military service or to evade the draft.

　At this juncture, the revenue-boosting effect of soaring energy prices appears to have passed its peak. Russia’s balance of payments fell into the red last month due to a drop in energy revenues. This does not yet reflect the impact of the recent plunge in oil prices and Russia’s almost complete cutoff of natural gas supplies to Europe, which means that the nation’s finances are already out of control before then.””””

English translation of the Japanese response comments below

It looks invalid under international law, doesn’t it?

“There is a precedent in the Golan Heights.

Israel effectively controlled the Golan Heights and declared its annexation in 1981.
In response, the UN Security Council resolved that the annexation was unjustified and that the Golan Heights were Syrian territory.
However, Israel continues to effectively control the Golan Heights to this day, and the U.S. also announced in 2019 that “Israel has sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

https://ja.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ゴラン高原”

International law doesn’t work for Trump.

“Because they’re still in effective control.
Ukraine has the upper hand.
Effective control doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue.”

The West only expresses regret.

Don’t they have the UN or something to witness the elections to make sure they’re fair? You know, you have to be present in civil war zones.

“This is where the real war begins.
Up to now, it’s a prelude.
Ukraine has gathered resources and weapons that can be recaptured by Lend-Lease.
Russia will defend these four provinces with hundreds of thousands of conscripts.”

The key will be what the West’s attitude will be toward the annexation… they may condemn it with their mouths, but their support will slowly fade away.

Even if the annexation becomes Russian territory, the attacks will not stop?

What will happen when Ukraine announces its participation in NATO….

The mudslinging begins.

“Even though there are countries that complain against Russia
but no country will go out of its way to join the war for the sake of Ukraine.
It’s a quagmire that will go on forever.”

“It’s not going to stop here.
They’re probably thinking about the next annexation.
We’re going to have to go as far as we can…”

“I heard that the officials came to your house with a referendum form and soldiers, and that who name and address are written on the form.
I’m sure they’ll vote yes.”

“Because there’s 100% no nuclear war.
It’s like the missiles in the North.

“Is there any merger to nuke any of these four states and just call it a military action
Is there anywhere in the four states where Russia wouldn’t be harmed if we nuked them?”

I really don’t understand why the invaders are so wounded that they’re willing to nuke us if we attack them! I’m really puzzled why the invading side is so full of wounds and says, “If you attack us, we’ll nuke you!

“I mean, the only enemy of NATO is Russia.
Europe should just pour out weapons without hesitation.”

Europe will soon not be able to afford a war.

“If they could escape, wouldn’t they?
And from now on, these four states are going to be the battleground.”

“If they’re wounded to the bone, but they’re expanding their territory, and they can defend themselves with nuclear threats, Russia wins.
Nukes are really scary.”

“They’ve used nuclear threats a lot in the past, but they’ve never been able to get Ukraine to surrender.
And if they actually use nukes, it’ll be the end of Russia.”

“Given the cluster warheads in the Hymers.
If the Russian conscripts come, they’ll make mincemeat out of him.
And that’s how they intend to create a pessimistic public opinion in Russia.”

What’s the point of the UN?

Even Russia can’t do whatever it wants in Ukraine, so it’s forced to invoke the UN Charter.

“If we have a ceasefire here, Russia will start a new invasion five years from now.
And then they’ll take the territory, and then there’ll be a ceasefire.
Endless loop.”

“You know, when the Russians invaded the first time, some of the residents were happy.
The pro-Russian population has always been connected to Russia.
That’s why there were tensions with the Ukrainian government.”

“Even if Ukraine doesn’t surrender, if the West backs down, there will have to be a ceasefire.
Lend-Lease forbids attacks on the Russian mainland, so it’s not clear that the U.S. would approve an attack on the annexed states, which would have a huge impact on the economy, and with midterm elections coming up, the U.S. would likely hand over four states to Russia and call it quits.”

“Actually, we also wanted to take the steel-producing region on the eastern bank of the Dnepr River.
But Ukrainian resistance has been fierce.
But Ukrainian resistance was so fierce that they settled for the coal belt.
But they will do it again.”

Biden says he doesn’t approve of the annexation.

“1) they’re pull out now.
(2) We’ll withdraw after strategic weapons are used in Ukraine.
(iii) We’ll do it until the end.

It appears to me that Biden has only three simple options.
Of course, he’s probably trying very hard to make other options.
In the end, he’s going to have to choose one of them.”

I’m guessing (1) or (2), and (3) he can’t do it without risking all-out nuclear war.

“Even when you annexed Crimea, you said you wouldn’t recognize it.
We just said it, but we didn’t do anything about it.”

They didn’t recognize it, so it’s possible for Lend-Lease to retake Crimea.

“If Ukraine effectively abandons the territory annexed by Russia and a ceasefire is reached, the territorial dispute issue is resolved and the requirements for NATO membership can be met.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia can no longer make any moves.”

“while the Russians are trying to hit it with liquid fuel, they’re going to end up with a missile.”

“Nuclear escalation starts with a situation like this where you can’t back down.
It’s just not logical.”

“If we allow this approach, Russia will do it in Hokkaido, and China will do it in Okinawa.
They will use force to push through with an absurdly made-up cause.
They will not listen to any attempts at diplomatic talks.”

If there was a real risk of nuclear retaliation, the US military chief of staff in Ukraine would not authorize an attack on annexed territory.

“If we deny nuclear retaliation, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will collapse.
And a nuclear-armed country could effectively invade a non-nuclear-armed country.”

In fact, the majority of American public opinion right now is against sending troops into Ukraine, and I don’t think Putin’s speech is going to change that opinion 180 degrees.

I don’t think he’s going to end it now that he’s applied for NATO membership.

“This is how you justify an invasion.
This is what China is going to do in Okinawa.”